The death of ViewMaster has been announced more than once, but the medium keeps rising from the dead. The latest newsletter from Las Vegas-based 3dStereo.com brings word of some new products, including an original story in the form of a booklet and three stereo reels produced by comedy writer Eric Drysdale (of The Colbert Report fame,) a new advertising reel for Embassy Suites hotels, some new soft-core porn “glamour” reels, and a lot of reissues of old sets. I’d also mention a release Fisher-Price made in October, a three-reel set of Where the Wild Things Are, which shows the pages of the original book with the white borders and text of the pages as a proscenium foreground and the illustrations inset in three dimensions. It’s a very clever envisioning of a children’s book, and a perfect use of the stereoscope. It was originally released as a gift set with a cardboard box and a Model L viewer. It’s still available in that format from 3Dstereo, but it’s in stores as a simple 3 reel blisterpak. Highly recommended.
ViewMaster: It’s not dead yet
Posted by acilius on February 23, 2011
https://losthunderlads.com/2011/02/23/viewmaster-its-not-dead-yet/
Stirring the pot
Lately I’ve been copying my posts from here to a site I maintain on Blogspot (or as I sometimes call it, “Blogs’ Pot.”) I’m doing this simply to back them up in case something goes wrong with WordPress. So far I’ve copied my posts from the launch of the blog in July 2007 through January 2009, and from May 2010 through the present. I haven’t copied all of them, just the ones that I’d miss if they vanished completely.
I’ve made no effort at all to publicize that other site, yet it has drawn a surprising number of pageviews and even a few comments. One comment about the US Civil War was so substantial that I had to break my reply to it into two parts (1, 2). I didn’t expect anyone to read acilius.blogspot.com, and am mystified that anyone has taken an interest in it.
Posted by acilius on February 21, 2011
https://losthunderlads.com/2011/02/21/stirring-the-pot/
Manitoba Hal wins!
The votes are in for Ukulele Hunt’s Video of the Year 2010 contest, and our favorite Manitoba Hal has won a much-deserved victory. He edged Bella Hemming’s “Play Guitar” (which is also excellent) by 11 votes out of 1225 cast. The big surprise was that Jonsi and Nico Muhli’s “Go Do” came last with only 31 votes; I’d expected it to be one of the top finishers. It was my second choice. Maybe it was lots of people’s second choice.
Posted by acilius on February 16, 2011
https://losthunderlads.com/2011/02/16/manitoba-hal-wins/
Will visits to the doctor go the way of visits from the doctor?
In the last few days, television audiences in the USA have been hearing a great deal about IBM’s “Watson” computer system. The occasion of this publicity is Watson’s appearance as a contestant on the popular quiz show Jeopardy. IBM has emphasized Watson’s potential in the medical field:
Throughout this material, IBM’s spokespeople keep inviting us to imagine a near future in which Watson or systems like it will be found “in every doctor’s office.” What this phrasing suggests to me is a situation in which there are about as many doctors as there are now, those doctors are distributed in offices as they are now, and in those offices they examine patients who come to them as they do now. The state of affairs that this phrasing suggests is that these future offices will differ from their present-day counterparts in that Watson-like natural language processors will be installed to provide the patient with an “instant second opinion.”
A moment’s reflection will reveal that there is essentially no likelihood of such a scenario being realized, at least not in the USA. As soon as a machine is invented that is capable of giving a medical opinion that is of any value whatsoever, flesh-and-blood doctors will vanish from the lives of low-income patients forever. Once the machine is so improved that it can be trusted to give a sound diagnosis most of the time, with none but the trickiest cases requiring review by human doctors and none but a small percentage of those requiring active intervention to overrule the machine, the only patients who will ever meet their doctors will be the very wealthy and the scientifically interesting.
The parallel I would draw is with the institution of the “house call.” As recently as 40 years ago, it was so common for doctors to call on their patients at home that when people occasionally had to go to the doctor’s office to receive care, it was considered grounds for a radical overhaul of the healthcare system. Now, when a doctor does make house calls, it’s national news. I predict that 40 years from now, it will be as rare for a patient to visit a doctor for examination as it is today for a doctor to visit a patient at home.
What will the consequences of this change be for public policy? The central dilemma in technology policy is always the same, that there is little or no interval between the time when it is too soon to say what the effects of a development will be and the time when it is too late to do anything about that development. One thing we can say is that demand for medical doctors will drop dramatically, probably to 1% or less of the current per capita demand by 2050. Whether that means we will have only 1% as many doctors then as we do now, or that some larger number will share 1% of the income that doctors now collect, of course depends on a wide range of factors. Whichever way it goes, certainly no prudent investor would be interested in funding a new medical school at this time.
The cost of health care is a focus of much discussion in the USA, where it represents at least 1/7 of GDP. Eliminating doctors would change the way this spending breaks down, but would neither reduce demand for health care nor increase its supply. Moreover, many have argued that the reason health care costs so much more in the USA than in similar countries is that Americans do not really have a market for health care. Rather, employers pay for health insurance in order to avoid paying the corporate income tax. Since employers pay insurance companies money that would otherwise go to the taxman, they have little incentive to negotiate lower premiums; since insurers raise premiums when providers charge them more, they have no incentive at all to negotiate for lower prices. As long as the corporate income tax and its health-insurance deduction remain in place, US health care costs will continue to rise no matter how little money goes to doctors. Perhaps if the USA were to abolish the corporate income tax and replace it with a consumer-driven revenue source like the Value Added Tax, a consumer-driven health care system might emerge, but until then, technology cannot solve our problems.
Of course, unemployment is also a public policy problem. What happens to all the M.D.s whose degrees will become worthless in the years ahead? And what happens to public opinion when the appearance of a horde of jobless doctors makes it clear that education is no guarantee of employment? Marxism may be dead, but will it stay buried in a world where the owners of capital are the only economic group who lead lives secure enough to plan for their futures?
Posted by acilius on February 16, 2011
https://losthunderlads.com/2011/02/16/will-visits-to-the-doctor-go-the-way-of-visits-from-the-doctor/
Pie charts and bar graphs
For some reason, hundreds of people looked at this old post of mine one day a couple of weeks ago. It consists almost entirely of this image, borrowed from haha.nu:
I have no idea what drew so much traffic to this item, but evidently the joke resonates with the Zeitgeist. Here’s the latest Partially Clips:
These may remind you of an xkcd from last year that consisted of self-referential charts and graphs, or of this joke.
Posted by acilius on February 15, 2011
https://losthunderlads.com/2011/02/15/pie-charts-and-bar-graphs/
Vote for Manitoba Hal!
Voting is underway in Ukulele Hunt’s Ukulele Video of the Year 2010 contest. My vote went to Manitoba Hal’s “Poulet Shack“:
The early voting is going Hal’s way, though that’s no indicator of how it will end up. Whether he wins this time around or not, Hal might win the Ukulele Video of the Year 2011 contest a year from now, based on his latest upload, “Learned Pigs and Fireproof Women“:
There were a couple of disappointments this time around. Lila Burns’ “Young Hearts, Young Minds” didn’t make the final cut; I don’t know how it would have done in a video contest, but I’d have voted for it as ukulele song of the year. Also, Ukulele Hunt webmaster Al Wood included the Keston Cobblers’ Club’s “You Go” in his initial suggestions; lots of people nominated it before it turned out to have been posted in 2009. It really is a spectacular video, I suspect it would have won. Several people wanted to nominate a video Al included in a recent Saturday UkeTube, a song called “Map of Tasmania” starring Amanda Palmer and her pubic hair; that one was uploaded this year, and will likely be among the stiffest competition “Learned Pigs and Fireproof Women” (or whatever it ends up being) has to overcome to be Ukulele Video of the Year 2011.
Posted by acilius on February 11, 2011
https://losthunderlads.com/2011/02/11/vote-for-manitoba-hal/
Edmund Lowe
I’d never heard of Seattle-based photographer Edmund Lowe until I happened upon this photograph a few minutes ago:
Prints of it are for sale, if I hadn’t already bought Mrs Acilius’ Valentine’s Day present I wouldn’t have been able to resist the temptation. Since this plant, the Western Skunk Cabbage (alias Yellow Skunk Cabbage, alias Lysichiton Americanus) blooms at the end of winter, it would be an appropriate symbol for a fertility festival held in mid-February. Since it emits a foul odor (whence the name “Skunk Cabbage,”) a photograph of it would be a better gift than an actual specimen.
Posted by acilius on February 10, 2011
https://losthunderlads.com/2011/02/10/edmund-lowe/
Religions and their atheisms
In his essay on Ernest Renan, Irving Babbitt wrote:
Renan has evidently carried over to science all the mental habits of Catholicism. As Sainte-Beuve remarks, “In France we shall remain Catholics long after we have ceased to be Christians.” Renan, indeed, may be best defined as a scientist and positivist with a Catholic imagination. For instance, he arrives at a conception of scientific dogma, of an infallible scientific papacy, of a scientific Hell and inquisition, of resurrection and immortality through science, of scientific martyrs… He promises us that if we imitate him we may hope to be, like himself, sanctified through science: “If all were as cultivated as I, all would be, like me, incapable of wrongdoing. Then it would be true to say: ye are gods and sons of the Most High.”
Lest we think Renan’s tongue was entirely in his cheek as he wrote this last excerpt, Babbitt elaborates:
Renan thus has a special gift for surrounding science with an atmosphere of religious devotion… In other words all the terms of the old idealism are to be retained, but by a system of subtle equivocation they are to receive new meanings. Thus a great deal is said about the “soul,” but, as used by Renan, it has come to be a sort of function of the brain. “Those will understand me who have once breathed the air of the other world and tasted the nectar of the ideal.” When this is taken in connection with the whole passage where it occurs, we discover that “tasting the nectar of the ideal” does not signify much more than reading a certain number of German monographs. Men, he tells us, are immortal- that is, “in their works” or “in the memory of those who have loved them,” or “in the memory of God.” Elsewhere we learn that by God he means merely “the category of the ideal.”*
As Babbitt reads him, Renan has rejected all of the characteristic doctrines of Christianity and certainly of its Roman Catholic variety. He could fairly be called an atheist. Yet he is a distinctly Roman Catholic atheist. It is the God preached in the church he attended as a boy in the town of Tréguier in the 1820s and 1830s in whom Renan disbelieves, not any other god; it is according to the imaginative categories that he learned there that he thinks of the world. This much is hardly surprising. Renan was of course a man of great erudition, but his earliest and most intensive learning was of his childhood social environment and the ideas that prevailed there.
What brings this to mind is an essay that appeared in the Chronicle of Higher Education a week ago. Author Stephen Asma is, like Irving Babbitt before him, an American scholar of no religious affiliation who has studied Buddhism deeply and with sympathy. Also like Babbitt, Asma is aware of the ways in which the religions we grow up in and around can shape our basic assumptions about the world even when we think we are rejecting them. Asma’s essay discusses the leading figures of the “New Atheism,” Richard Dawkins, Christopher Hitchens, Sam Harris, and Daniel Dennett, the so-called “Four Horsemen” of the movement. Asma argues that when these men argue against “religion,” they are in fact arguing against only those forms of monotheism with which they personally are most familiar:
As an agnostic, I find much of the horsemen’s critiques to be healthy.
But most friends and even enemies of the new atheism have not yet noticed the provincialism of the current debate. If the horsemen left their world of books, conferences, classrooms, and computers to travel more in the developing world for a year, they would find some unfamiliar religious arenas.
Having lived in Cambodia and China, and traveled in Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Africa, I have come to appreciate how religion functions quite differently in the developing world—where the majority of believers actually live. The Four Horsemen, their fans, and their enemies all fail to factor in their own prosperity when they think about the uses and abuses of religion.
Harris and his colleagues think that religion is mostly concerned with two jobs—explaining nature and guiding morality. Their suggestion that science does these jobs better is pretty convincing. As Harris puts it, “I am arguing that science can, in principle, help us understand what we should do and should want—and, therefore, what other people should do and should want in order to live the best lives possible.” I agree with Harris here and even spilled significant ink myself, back in 2001, to show that Stephen Jay Gould’s popular science/religion diplomacy of “nonoverlapping magisteria” (what many call the fact/value distinction) is incoherent. The horsemen’s mistake is not their claim that science can guide morality. Rather, they’re wrong in imagining that the primary job of religion is morality. Like cosmology, ethics is barely relevant in non-Western religions. It is certainly not the main function or lure of devotional life. Science could take over the “morality job” tomorrow in the developing world, and very few religious practitioners would even notice.
Asma goes on to discuss animism at length, pointing out that if we classify the belief that nature is inhabited by spirits who influence our lives and require our worship as a single religion, it is easily the world’s most popular. Yet animists rarely offer explanations of natural phenomena that compete with scientific explanations, and they do not ground ethical codes in divine commandments. Westerners who focus on the rituals animists perform and the stories they tell to explain these rituals often dismiss animism as a childish notion, and to believe that “animists are just uneducated and unscientific, and that eventually they will ‘evolve’ (according to theists) toward our scientific view of one God—a rational God of natural laws (who is also omniscient and omnipotent).” If those Westerners side with the New Atheists, they may expect to see a further step in this ‘evolution’:
And eventually (according to the new atheists) these primitives will join the march beyond even monotheism, to the impersonal, secular laws of nature. We all previously believed that storms, floods, bad crops, and diseases were caused by irritated local spirits (invisible persons who were angry with us for one reason or another), but now we know that weather and microbes behave according to predictable laws, with no “intentions” behind them. The view of nature as “lawful” and “predictable” has given those of us in the developed world power, freedom, choice, and self-determination. This power is real, and I am sincerely thankful to benefit from dentistry, cell theory, antibiotics, birth control, and anesthesia. I love science.
Yet this view of animism, Asma argues, is hopelessly distorted. It leaves out the key insight at the root of animism: “Animism can be defined as the belief that there are many kinds of persons in this world, only some of whom are human. Your job, as an animist, is to placate and honor these spirit-persons.” When I tell my classes about ancient Greek and Roman medicine before the time of Hippocrates, I often say something similar to this definition Asma offers here. The ancients, I say, believed that the health of the body reflected the person’s social environment. They expected a person whose relationships with others were loving and secure to be healthy, and they expected a person whose relationships with others were hostile or uncertain to be unhealthy. These expectations are not at all unreasonable; more often than not, we do find exactly this. When they saw that a person whose relationships with the people they could see were loving and secure, but that the person’s physical health was poor, it was by no means irrational of them to assume that there must be other persons whom they could not see with whom the person’s relationships were not so good.
Asma sums his argument up thus:
The Four Horsemen and other new atheists are members of liberal democracies, and they have not appeared to be interested in the social-engineering agendas of the earlier, Communist atheists. With impressive arts of persuasion, the new atheistic proponents just want to talk, debate, and exchange ideas, and of course they should do so. No harm, no foul.
But Sam Harris’s new book may be a subtle turning point toward a more normative social agenda. If public policy is eventually expected to flow from atheism, then its proponents need to have a more nuanced and global understanding of religion.
I suspect that there are at least as many atheisms as there are religions. As Renan retained the mental habits of Catholicism even after he renounced the Roman Catholic Church and the God it preached, so too the “Four Horsemen” and company cannot help but reject the specific religions which have been important to them. That’s why it won’t do, for example, for John Wilks to say that “Christians are Vishnu-atheists, I am a Thor-atheist, and so on.” A person who was raised in a culture where Vishnu and Thor are simply names in stories that no one believes and who does not set out to adopt a belief in them is not doing remotely the same thing as is the person who, raised in a culture where virtually everyone pays cult to the gods of the Hindu pantheon or those of the Norse pantheon, declares that those gods are unreal and that their worshipers are wasting their time. At the beginning of his or her journey away from belief in the gods, the latter person will certainly share most of the beliefs and the mental habits that go with the worship of those gods. And it is entirely possible that s/he will still share them to the end of the road. If so learned a man as Ernest Renan remained readily recognizable a Roman Catholic decades after he came to the conclusion that there was no God, it is clear that the simple act of rejecting a religious doctrine, however important that doctrine may be to the followers of the religion, does not by itself remove the influence of that religion from the person’s mind.
This much may seem obvious. The forms of atheism that people develop as they leave a religion should be seen as phases of that religion. Renan’s Roman Catholic atheism is a phase of Roman Catholicism, as Richard Dawkins’ atheism is a phase of Low Church Anglicanism, Sam Harris’ atheism is a phase of Judaism, ibn Warraq’s atheism is a phase of Islam, and so on. Yet it is not obvious, as witness John Wilks’ comment identifying himself as a “Thor-atheist.” What keeps it from being obvious is, I would say, the influence of fundamentalism.
Today, “fundamentalist” is often used as an empty term of abuse, suggesting angry people who are impatient with disagreement. Yet it began with a definite meaning, a meaning which people who identify themselves as fundamentalist Christians still use. “Fundamentalist” began as a name for people who agreed with the doctrines laid out in a series of tracts called The Fundamentals: A Testimony to the Truth. Those tracts identify certain interpretations of particular passages of the Bible as essential to Christianity and argue that one will be saved from damnation if and only if one believes that those passages, under those interpretations, are true. Fundamentalists regard those passages, under the prescribed interpretations, as the great truths of Christianity. They expect the individual to be transformed upon acceptance of these great truths, and they expect society to be transformed upon the triumph of the Christian movement.
To what sort of atheism does fundamentalist Christianity characteristically give rise? I myself know many atheists who were raised by self-described fundamentalists. Some have gone through complex intellectual and spiritual journeys since leaving their earlier faith. Upon others, however, the marks of fundamentalist thinking are still writ large. For example, one friend expressed amazement that a professor in a psychology course at the fundamentalist Bible college she attended could avow belief in fundamentalist doctrines. When I asked her why she was surprised, she said that she expected his practice as a scientist to show him that there was no place for supernatural ideas. She said that he must have “compartmentalized” his mind so as to keep his scientific thinking separate from his religious beliefs. While psychologists do sometimes use the word “compartmentalization” to refer to an attempt to protect a cherished belief by creating a separate mental space into which one may confine dangerous knowledge, the currency the word has in this sense among atheists raised as fundamentalist Christians goes far beyond its actual prominence as a scientific concept. The readiest explanation for its popularity among ex-fundamentalist Christians is that they still believe that once a person accepts the great truths, that person will naturally attain the virtue that marks the movement. The content of the great truths may be different (“There is no God” rather than “There is a God,” “Science is the sole path to understanding nature” rather than “Faith is the sole path to understanding eternal things,” etc,) and the movement has a different name and a different liturgy, but the followers of each movement expect the individual to be transformed upon acceptance of the great truths and society to be transformed upon the triumph of the movement. The expression “fundamentalist atheist” rankles nonbelievers, understandably so given the word’s pejorative uses. Yet mental habits of the affirming phase of fundamentalism transfer so readily to its atheist phase that one can hardly expect the expression to die out.
*pages 259-261 in The Masters of Modern French Criticism (Boston, 1912)
Posted by acilius on January 28, 2011
https://losthunderlads.com/2011/01/28/religions-and-their-atheisms/





