Scott Walker withdraws from the 2016 presidential race. I withdraw my estimate that Scott Walker has a 90% chance of being the Republican nominee in the 2016 presidential race

No idea which of those other clowns will make it, though.  John Kasich waited a year too long to start campaigning, Marco Rubio has too many skeletons in his closet, Jeb Bush doesn’t even have his own mother’s sincere endorsement, and none of the others is at appealing to the GOP donor class.  Maybe Messr.s Kasich, Rubio, and Bush will all stay in the race long enough to divide the mainstream Republican vote and allow one of the protest candidates to squeak in as the nominee.  Probably not- probably Bush will be the next to go, and Kasich won’t catch on beyond the scale of John McCain’s 2000 campaign, and Rubio’s closet door will stay tightly enough closed that his skeletons won’t prevent him facing off against Hillary Clinton.  But still, it is a remarkably volatile situation.


  1. You did leave that 10% wiggle room. Walker went down rather suddenly. I was surprised.

    My early prediction was Bush. If it’s not Trump, maybe it will be Bush, I mean, Jeb! Last night, lying awake I was stymied. It’s harder to see any of this crew head the ticket than even seeing Bernie Sanders pull it out on the Dem side. Then I thought, really?, I’m wasting insomnia on this? So I pulled out a book by Estonian poet Jaan Kaplinski and read until the text started going fuzzy.

  2. I’m sure it wiser to read poetry than to pay attention to these candidates! I’d be astounded if the Republicans chose to send the son and brother of former presidents to face the wife of a former president, but I’d be equally astounded if anyone other than John E. Bush were nominated.

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