So what about the candidates?
Not an attempt to persuade, rather an unhelpful blathering of dropped from a helicopter on a snowboard-, restauranteur pioneer of Pripyat, Ukraine-style observations of their current standing. In other words, more of what you see on TV, only bloggy-style:
- Obama: Speaks very well, in line with values of many, yet enough folks are still too prejudiced and others are secretly afraid he won’t stand up against a Republican monster.
- Biden: Oh, please! This is where I put the expression “jacking your dick” because it belongs somewhere.
- Edwards: Doesn’t inspire enough passion. He articulates many things people want done but no one believes he can get them done.
- Richardson: Seems like he’d be a solid cabinet member once Clinton wins.
- Kucinich: Another place, another time…
- Clinton: Tremendous lead among mainstream and corporate interests. Not offensive enough to drive off everyone else who’s pissed and demands change.
- Paul: Attacked viciously because he loudly proclaims the popular will on major issues. Can’t have that! Very good chance he’ll be a 3rd party spoiler and screw everything up for the Democrats.
- Giuliani: Charisma and bald confidence will get you a lot of places (see Bush Jr.) but there’s plenty more mud headed his way. Not acceptable to the loud minorities of Republicans, too vulnerable on too much.
- Romney: 3-way furball between these last. Slip-ups will dog Romney and prejudice will play a role here, probably wrongly. (There are a lot of bizarre Christians who are decent people in their private lives and who insist on screwing up the private lives of others, he doesn’t deserve singling out for those qualities)
- Huckabee: The kind of unkind conservative Republicans love. McCain’s biggest competition from the values voters. Could make it.
- McCain: Momentum will build when the media realizes all that hugging with Bush means “Old Freaky” has plenty of support where he needs it. The aroma of a “comeback” story will be intoxicating. A survivor, a veteran, and a dirk-carrying operator with the best chance.
acilius
believer1
lefalcon
losthunderlads
vthunderlad
Panther Red 
acilius
/ January 2, 2008I’m hoping RuPaul, er, Ron Paul scores a surprising third place with 10% or so in today’s Iowa caucuses, catapulting him to win New Hampshire with 37% (the percentage Buchanan got in that primary in 1992 and 1996.) That’ll put a scare up the War Party. The Republicans will want to rally around the frontrunner against Paul. That may be Huckabee (strong among evangelicals in Iowa and Baptists in South Carolina) or Romney (well-known in New Hampshire, strong among Mormons in Wyoming and Nevada.) If neither of them has a winning streak before February 5, they may turn to a less-damaged candidate, like Thompson or possibly Giuliani. Without a clear win in New Hampshire, I don’t see Crazy John McCain staying in.
As for the Democrats, anybody but Clinton. I like Richardson and Obama, Edwards deserves points for calling for the abolition of nuclear weapons, Dodd, Kucinich, and Gravel, hey, I love ’em, but come on. The only one keeping them from last place is Biden.
vthunderlad
/ January 4, 2008Nice predictions from acilius!
My Likes (as opposed to original post’s supposedly impartial observations):
D – Kucinich, Obama, Edwards and Richardson. R – Can’t stand any of the Republicans. Ha ha!
Back to predictions:
Iowa means little. Only clear losers were thrown out. Paul will continue to pull support from angry Repubs and insane Democrat(ics), but his real threat is still a change to 3rd party status. Bloomberg is a secret weapon that could blow up either side though he is most likely out for 2008.
Standing by picks for primary winners:
Clinton v. McCain
If I’m wrong, it’ll most likely be:
Obama v. Huckabee
acilius
/ January 9, 2008If voters had been focused on the war, Paul would have come in third in Iowa, first in New Hampshire, and then kept the GOP race in a state of confusion until the Texas primary in March. But of course, they weren’t, he didn’t, and none of that matters. He still might take third in the Nevada caucuses, though.
As it stands, the next really interesting place is South Carolina. On the Republican side, if McCain wins there, he wins in Florida and is a strong frontrunner going into February 5th. If Huckabee wins South Carolina, he wins Florida and is a strong frontrunner going into February 5th. If Thompson wins South Carolina, Giuliani wins Florida and there is no overall frontrunner going into February 5. Giuliani can’t survive a South Carolina win by either McCain or Huckabee; too many of his voters are attracted to McCain for him to hold onto them if Crazy John moves clearly to the head of the pack, and too many of them are repelled by Huckabee for them to stay away from the safe choice (the man who has already won some races) when Giuliani tries to make his late entry. Thompson doesn’t have the resources to capitalize on a South Carolina win, and Romney is finished.
On the Democratic side, prediction is easy. With Edwards and Richardson dead in the water after their poor showings in New Hampshire, Clinton is free to concentrate on Obama. In South Carolina, she will rip the guts out of him with a smear campaign the likes of which we’ve never seen before, thus defeating him and sweeping to victory on February 5. Whoever the Republicans nominate will then replay Bush’s 2004 campaign, pointing out Clinton’s worse-than-useless vagueness on Iraq, and easily retain the White House for the GOP.
acilius
/ September 12, 2008Hmm…
Well, vthunderlad was right about McCain getting the GOP nomination, I was wrong about Clinton getting the Democratic one. Let’s see how it goes from here.